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Global ocean freight rates fell sharply in the final week of June, with transpacific and Asia–Europe routes posting notable declines amid softening demand and expanding vessel availability. The steepest drop occurred on the Asia–US West Coast lane, where average spot rates plummeted 39% week-on-week to $3,389/FEU, according to Freightos. That figure marks a 43% decline from the June peak, although it remains 22% higher than levels seen in late May.

The rate correction follows a short-lived demand spike triggered by the US government's 12 May rollback of tariffs on Chinese goods. That move prompted a surge in container bookings from China to the US, which has now tapered off. Carriers, having ramped up transpacific capacity in anticipation of a more sustained rebound, are now contending with underutilised vessels.

“Now that trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have eased considerably, frontloading by US importers has lost steam. The market is swiftly recalibrating to softer demand,” an analyst observed.

The Asia–US East Coast route also saw significant erosion, with rates falling 15% last week. With these losses unfolding at the onset of what is traditionally the peak season, market watchers warn that carriers may be compelled to reduce sailings in the coming weeks to stabilise rates.

Meanwhile, rates to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean also slipped 4% and 5%, respectively, raising doubts over the viability of planned July General Rate Increases (GRIs). Despite ongoing diversions around the Red Sea, weak demand is pushing carriers to consider off-season capacity adjustments to protect margins.

“Rate levels across the board remain well below last year’s figures, which underlines the impact of capacity growth outpacing demand—even as geopolitical risks continue to disrupt traditional sailing patterns,” a logistics executive commented.

Shippers are closely monitoring the 9 July expiry of the US reciprocal tariff moratorium. The White House aims to finalise negotiations with its top ten trading partners shortly after the 4^{th of} July holiday, with potential unilateral tariff actions on others expected soon thereafter.

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