Print

Oil prices firmed on Monday as expectations of a potential US interest rate cut in December strengthened, while earlier optimism over peace negotiations in Eastern Europe began to ease.

Brent gained 1.3% to $63.37 a barrel, and WTI rose 1.3% to $58.84, recovering from one-month lows. 

Softer US labour data supported market views that the Federal Reserve could deliver another quarter-point cut, improving the outlook for economic activity and near-term fuel demand.

Diplomatic sentiment turned more cautious after recent proposals were judged unlikely to deliver a breakthrough, prompting traders to restore some geopolitical risk premium following last week’s sharp pullback. Fresh US sanctions on major Russian oil firms would typically tighten supply, though the immediate impact was limited. Industry estimates point to a steep year-on-year drop in Russia’s energy revenue in November.

Broader signals remained uneven. German business confidence weakened again, highlighting the patchy nature of Europe’s recovery, while renewed dialogue between Washington and Beijing helped lift longer-term demand sentiment. Additional sanctions involving Venezuela added to the supply-side uncertainty.

Despite Monday’s recovery, major institutions maintain a guarded view on the medium-term outlook, with forecasts suggesting subdued prices into 2026 and 2027. For now, crude remains driven by shifting diplomatic developments and evolving expectations around US monetary policy.

Written by: Aiman Haikal