Print

Read more on Freightos

Transpacific freight rates continued to decline last week, extending the pullback from mid-November as soft seasonal demand and persistent overcapacity kept pressure on carriers. Asia–US West Coast rates fell 10% week-on-week to $1,715/FEU, approaching early 2025 lows, while East Coast rates slipped 17% to $2,863/FEU, erasing most gains achieved through recent GRIs. Daily assessments indicate tentative stabilisation, though rates remain vulnerable to further adjustments if demand fails to rebound.

Industry observers note that overcapacity remains the defining factor on East–West routes. Despite ongoing Red Sea diversions, fleet growth and continued service availability have outweighed demand, limiting the effectiveness of recent GRIs and raising uncertainty over the viability of December rate increases.

In contrast, Asia–Northern Europe and Mediterranean lanes held relatively steady at $2,467/FEU and $2,930/FEU respectively. The Mediterranean showed signs of early GRI activity this week, with daily quotes reaching $3,400/FEU, as carriers manage capacity tightly amid the contract tender season. EU emissions surcharges set for January are expected to increase operating costs and may provide additional support to rate floors on these lanes.

Attention remains on the Red Sea route, where Maersk’s return is anticipated but remains unconfirmed. A gradual resumption could temporarily congest European hubs, impacting port call schedules and creating short-term upward pressure on rates. The timing relative to Lunar New Year will be critical: pre-holiday shifts could amplify congestion and volatility, while post-festivities transitions are likely to produce minimal disruption.

Weather disruptions in Southeast Asia added further short-term volatility. Severe storms affected operations in Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, with Port of Colombo reportedly hardest hit. Carriers and freight forwarders are adjusting schedules, though the impact is expected to be temporary.

Looking ahead, the global container market remains oversupplied, with soft demand dominating transpacific lanes while Asia–Europe routes show controlled resilience. Rate stability through December will depend on carriers’ ability to manage capacity efficiently, particularly if Red Sea traffic normalises and the post-Lunar New Year period sees typical demand softening.

Written by: Aiman Haikal