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As December opened, transpacific rates bounced despite expectations for the lowest volumes of the year. West Coast pricing rose 22% last week to around $2,100/FEU. Carriers appear to be experimenting with smaller, weekly increases rather than the traditional larger bi-monthly adjustments, aiming for steps that face less resistance from the market. 

Early-week indications point to a further lift to about $2,200/FEU, while East Coast levels have edged above $3,000/FEU. Nonetheless, doubts remain over the sustainability of these gains.

The West Coast route has absorbed notable volatility since early October, when rates hit a low of roughly $1,400/FEU. Capacity cuts and GRIs pushed mid-October and early-November prices close to $3,000/FEU, before retreating to about $1,700/FEU by the end of November.

Momentum around Red Sea shipping has shifted slightly over the past week. The release of crew members held by Houthis since July, coupled with CMA CGM and its Ocean Alliance partners sending some services through the Suez Canal under French naval escort, has injected cautious optimism. One service has even returned to a Red Sea headhaul routing. However, these steps do not indicate an imminent full restoration of traffic, and any eventual reopening will introduce additional capacity into an already oversupplied market.

US demand outlook remains split. Some observers anticipate a restocking-driven volume boost in 2026, while others are less optimistic. The NRF projects double-digit year-on-year declines in US ocean imports through April, citing weaker consumer sentiment amid the ongoing trade war. Frontloading tied to the conflict is also partly responsible for current subdued volumes, which will amplify year-on-year declines expected for Q1 2026.

In contrast, Europe’s import performance has been comparatively resilient, aided by China shifting shipments toward non-US markets. CTS data shows October imports into Europe fell 2% month-on-month but remained 1% higher year-on-year. Asia–Europe flows, however, dipped 3% year-on-year — marking the first annual decline since February.

Despite slow-season volumes, carriers have maintained firmer pricing on Asia–Europe routes than on the transpacific. Aggressive blank sailings leading up to annual contract negotiations have provided additional support. GRIs implemented from mid-October lifted Asia–Europe rates by 40% to $2,463/FEU, where they have held steady since late November. Asia–Mediterranean pricing has increased 56% to $3,366/FEU, including a $500/FEU boost at the start of December. Some carriers are planning additional mid-December GRIs, potentially raising North Europe rates toward $3,500/FEU and Mediterranean levels to around $4,200/FEU or higher.

Written by: Farid Muzaffar