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Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near-halt since fighting broke out in Iran roughly a week and a half ago, with significant consequences for energy markets and growing questions for container shipping. Container disruption remains regional for now. Backlogs are forming at Gulf ports and at origin ports in India and Bangladesh, while transhipment hubs in the Far East are seeing rising yard utilisation as Gulf-bound cargo is diverted.

Broader spot rates, however, have moved on seasonality rather than war premium transpacific rates are up around 10% to $2,022/FEU, East Coast routes have climbed to around $3,000/FEU, Asia-Europe gained 6% to $2,600/FEU and Mediterranean rates rose 2% to $3,700/FEU, all consistent with the typical post-Chinese New Year demand uptick.

The broader market has largely been insulated from the conflict, and analysts expect any hub congestion to be far less severe than the disruption seen at the start of the Red Sea crisis, given lower volumes and a halt on new Gulf bookings.

The more immediate risk to global shipping is fuel. Climbing oil prices have already prompted CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd to announce emergency surcharges across all lanes — $70–75/TEU for regional routes and $150/TEU for long haul — effective 23rd March, with other carriers expected to follow if crude remains elevated. Standard bunker adjustment rates are already fixed for Q2 and cannot be revised until the third quarter, meaning any sustained oil price pressure will take time to feed through to baseline freight costs.

Written by: Farid Muzaffar