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Freightos Baltic: Container rates flip positive year-on-year despite weak demand as fuel constraints biteSurging fuel costs and Middle East bottlenecks have flipped global container rates positive year-on-year, defying weak seasonal demand. |
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Route |
Cost (USD/FEU) |
Changes |
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Updated on 07 April 2026 |
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Asia – US West Coast |
$ 2,448 |
á 11% |
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Asia – US East Coast |
$ 3,385 |
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Asia – Northern Europe |
$ 2,927 |
á 2% |
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Asia – Mediterranean |
$ 3,844 |
â 2% |
Read more on Freightos
The global ocean freight market is exhibiting unusual pricing strength for the traditional slow season. Despite the post-Lunar New Year demand lull and persistent structural overcapacity, rate trends have reversed their previous year-on-year declines. This upward momentum is being driven by carrier surcharges and escalating fuel constraints linked to the prolonged Middle East crisis, keeping rates elevated even as base demand remains soft.
While transpacific and Asia-Europe spot prices were significantly lower year-on-year in early 2025, that margin has vanished. Rates to the US West Coast have surged nearly 40% since just before the war, now standing 8% stronger than a year ago. Similarly, Asia-North Europe rates have climbed 20% in the same period, sitting 22% higher year-on-year. Asia-Mediterranean prices remain elevated compared to late February, though they have retreated slightly from their mid-March peaks.
However, underlying supply-demand imbalances are capping the effectiveness of carrier price hikes. Benchmark levels and discounted rates continue to track below announced Freight All Kinds, which are the standard baseline rates carriers set to cover shipments of all cargo types. Furthermore, regulatory resistance persists, with the US Federal Maritime Commission continuing to deny carrier requests to waive the standard waiting period for implementing new fees.
Six weeks after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, transit remains tightly restricted. Passage requires explicit coordination with Iran and potential advance payments, exemplified by a CMA CGM vessel recently becoming the first major European carrier ship to secure transit.
Consequently, bunker availability is becoming a critical pressure point. Singapore, the industry’s largest refuelling hub, currently holds approximately one month of fuel stocks, though Rotterdam remains adequately supplied. Prolonged disruption threatens to force carriers into slow steaming or blanking sailings to conserve fuel, which would introduce further upward pressure on ocean rates.
Written by: Farid Muzaffar
