Freightos Baltic: Transpacific and Asia–Europe rates show stabilisation as US-China trade tensions ease

The GRIs on 1 November provided temporary support, particularly on Europe-bound lanes. Daily West Coast spot rates have surged $1,000/FEU to $2,962/FEU this week, though early reports indicate that carriers are already offering lower rates. East Coast daily rates have fallen roughly $100/FEU, suggesting limited traction from GRIs. On Asia–Europe routes, daily rates have risen $300–$500/FEU, with Mediterranean levels reaching approximately $2,800/FEU.

Last week’s Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea produced an interim trade agreement that eases US–China tensions, at least temporarily. The deal reduces fentanyl-related tariffs on China by ten percentage points, extends the existing tariff truce for one year, and sets a 20% baseline on all Chinese exports, returning levels to those last seen in March. 

In parallel, US port call fees on China-linked vessels will be postponed for twelve months starting 10 November. China, in exchange, will restrict fentanyl-related chemical flows and roll back controls on rare earth exports, pause US soybean purchase restrictions, and suspend reciprocal port call fees for US-linked vessels.

Operationally, the agreement offers relief for Chinese carriers facing substantial surcharge exposure and for US-linked operators in China, though non-Chinese carriers may maintain some precautionary vessel deployment adjustments. Despite the de-escalation, transpacific volumes are unlikely to surge. 

Persistent tariffs on two-thirds of US-bound Chinese exports, coupled with frontloaded shipments and the typical November–December seasonal lull, suggest that importers will continue diversifying sourcing and freight demand will remain modest.

Last week’s agreement, together with other US trade deals with ASEAN countries, has given supply chain stakeholders greater clarity and stability over the tariff landscape — at least for now, and potentially for the next twelve months. This fragile stability could reduce the likelihood of the frontloading and erratic shipping patterns seen earlier this year, hinting at a possible return to more traditional seasonality in freight markets, even as tariffs continue to raise import costs.

However, legal and regulatory uncertainty persists as the US Supreme Court began hearings on a case challenging Trump’s use of IEEPA for tariffs introduced this year, with a ruling potentially not expected until June 2026. A decision invalidating these tariffs could inject short-term volatility, though broader trade barriers are unlikely to vanish, given alternative legal pathways for US sectoral tariffs.

Looking ahead, carriers’ ability to sustain recent rate gains should depend on how effectively they balance capacity against softening demand, primarily through continued blank sailings. Although congestion at European ports and modest year-on-year volume growth offer some support, Asia–Europe rates remain over 40% below 2024 levels. This underscores how ongoing structural capacity expansion continues to weigh on the market, despite the mitigating effects of Red Sea diversions.

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