Freightos Baltic: Transpacific freight surged after November GRIs; US Supreme Court case could briefly ease tariffs
US policy developments could further influence freight dynamics. The Supreme Court recently heard an appeal challenging the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose fentanyl-related tariffs.
|
Route |
Cost (USD/FEU) |
Changes |
|
Updated on 5 November 2025 |
||
|
Asia – US West Coast |
$ 2,958 |
á 48% |
|
Asia – US East Coast |
$ 3,513 |
â 3% |
|
Asia – Northern Europe |
$ 2,492 |
á 9% |
|
Asia – Mediterranean |
$ 2,837 |
á 24% |
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East-West ocean freight rates rose sharply last week following the November 1 General Rate Increases (GRIs). Transpacific shipments to the US West Coast climbed 48%, or roughly $1,000/FEU, to $2,958/FEU, although daily spot rates this week have shown a mild pullback. Rates to the East Coast remained largely steady at $3,513/FEU. Asia–Europe lanes also gained, with Northern Europe up 9% to $2,492/FEU and Mediterranean-bound cargoes rising 24% to $2,837/FEU. Several carriers have signalled mid-month GRIs, aiming to push Asia–Europe rates toward $3,000/FEU as long-term contract tendering gets underway.
US policy developments could further influence freight dynamics. The Supreme Court recently heard an appeal challenging the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose fentanyl-related tariffs. Justices’ comments suggested a likely ruling against the administration, with a decision possible by year-end, though the court has until June to issue a final ruling. If IEEPA use is struck down, a temporary low-tariff window could open for imports from multiple countries. Washington is expected to act quickly, potentially reinstating duties through trade law that allows immediate 15% country-specific tariffs for 150 days.
Weak seasonal demand continues to challenge carriers. October US ocean import volumes were roughly flat with the year’s lows recorded in May and June, and further declines are projected in November and December, with double-digit monthly drops compared with last year due to tariff frontloading. Volumes are expected to recover ahead of Lunar New Year shipments in January and February but will likely remain below Q1 2025 levels.
Overcapacity remains a persistent pressure point. Despite last year’s Red Sea diversions keeping rates above long-term norms, the global benchmark has trended lower year-on-year since March even as overall volumes grew in 2025. Reports indicate the Houthis have declared an end to Red Sea attacks, and carriers are engaging with Suez Canal officials, suggesting a return of traffic via the Suez is approaching. While this could improve route efficiency, it may temporarily exacerbate the current supply surplus.
Written: Farid Muzaffar