Official data: China PMI data shows eighth month of contraction in manufacturing, even as new order gauges inch up

China’s official manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.2 in November, up from 49.0 in October — but remained below the 50‑point expansion threshold, marking an eighth consecutive month of contraction. 

Sub‑indices offered a bit more nuance: the new orders index ticked up to 49.2, pointing to a modest improvement in demand sentiment, though still in contraction territory. At the same time, the non‑manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5, while the composite PMI — which combines factory and services activity — fell back to 49.7. 

On the services side, demand softened as the boost from October’s Golden Week faded, but some sectors resisted the downturn: official data showed firms in railway transport, telecommunications and broadcasting, and financial services registering sub‑indices above 55. 

The broader manufacturing backdrop remains weak. Industrial profits slid sharply in October — falling 5.5% year‑on‑year — underscoring persistent margin pressure amid weak demand and output.

Trade developments and global uncertainties continue to weigh on export orders. While the “new orders” sub‑index shows some bottoming, both domestic and foreign demand remain fragile. That suggests any recovery is likely to be gradual and heavily dependent on external demand and policy support.

Policy‑makers and market watchers will now be watching closely for early‑December data flow — retail sales, fixed‑asset investment and output — for signs of stabilization. For now, the PMI sub‑indices highlight a market still navigating contraction: demand has not collapsed, but it is far from robust.

Written by: Farid Muzaffar
Edited by: Aiman Haikal