Oil rose on Black Sea supply disruption and cautious OPEC+ stance
The gains follow four straight monthly declines across both benchmarks, the longest slide since 2023, as forecasts of oversupply into 2026 keep overall sentiment in check.
Crude prices advanced on Monday as traders recalibrated the geopolitical risk premium following fresh damage to a key Black Sea export terminal, escalating Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil assets, and renewed uncertainty surrounding US–Venezuela relations, even as the broader market continues to grapple with expectations of a looming supply surplus.
Brent crude futures for February settled $63.17 a barrel, up $0.79, or 1.27%.
WTI for January delivery closed $59.32 a barrel, rising $0.77, or 1.32%.
The gains follow four straight monthly declines across both benchmarks, the longest slide since 2023, as forecasts of oversupply into 2026 keep overall sentiment in check.
Prices found support after one of the three loading points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Novorossiysk terminal was severely damaged following a weekend attack in the region. The pipeline system, which handles around 1.6 million barrels a day of Kazakh crude, temporarily halted operations at the affected mooring, stoking fears of near-term supply disruption.
Traders also monitored developments in Venezuela, where US President Donald Trump declared the surrounding airspace “closed,” adding a layer of political uncertainty despite limited expectations of material supply losses from the South American producer.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ reiterated its plan to maintain current output levels through the first quarter of 2026, offering some stability as the group navigates weaker seasonal demand and concerns over a potential glut. The decision helped temper bearish pressure but did little to offset broader expectations of rising global supply.
Written by: Aiman Haikal