Freightos Baltic: Year-end rates climb as LNY pull-forward offsets Transpacific structural weakness

Read more on Freightos

Ocean freight rates on major east–west trade lanes closed the year on an upward trajectory, supported by an unusual early surge in seasonal demand and persistent transit delays that underpinned carrier pricing. Asia–Northern Europe rates rose 1% week-on-week to $2,742/FEU, climbing 12% above mid-December levels and returning to peaks last seen at the close of the 2025 high season. Asia–Mediterranean rates advanced 4%, surpassing $4,000/FEU for the first time since July, marking a 20% increase since the start of December.

Industry participants point to an accelerated start to pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) shipments as a key driver. With LNY landing later than usual on 17 February, shippers are contending with extended lead times compounded by ongoing Red Sea diversions. Observers expect rates to remain elevated—or even push higher—through early 2026, provided carriers continue to exercise capacity discipline.

The Transpacific market showed a more uneven performance. General Rate Increases (GRIs) produced modest gains on the US West Coast (+1% to $2,145/FEU), while East Coast rates surged 10% to $3,364/FEU. 

Globally, trade lane performance is increasingly decoupled. US ocean imports contracted throughout 2025, largely under pressure from lingering trade tensions, yet overall global volumes rose roughly 4% through early Q4. This growth was driven by China’s strategic redirection toward non-US markets, including Europe, Africa, and Latin America.

Looking ahead to 2026, the macro outlook remains cautious. S&P forecasts a further 2% decline in US ocean imports—a potential third consecutive year-on-year contraction following 2008–2009 and 2022–2023. Meanwhile, BIMCO projects continued global volume growth, even as new-build capacity threatens to exceed demand. The key variable for Q1 will be the Red Sea: any stabilisation enabling a return to Suez transits could release significant capacity, putting downward pressure on current rate floors.

Written by: Aiman Haikal