Oil settled mixed as massive US inventory build collides with persistent Middle East supply fears

Oil prices settled largely unchanged on Wednesday as persistent geopolitical risk premiums over US-Iran tensions completely overshadowed a deeply bearish US crude inventory build.

Brent closed 8 cents higher at $70.85 a barrel. 

US WTI settled down 21 cents to $65.42 a barrel.

Prices remained anchored by fears of Middle East supply disruptions following US President Donald Trump’s hardline State of the Union address, keeping traders defensive ahead of Thursday's US-Iran diplomatic talks in Geneva. This geopolitical risk premium held firm despite emerging supply-side mitigations, specifically reports of a Saudi Arabian contingency plan to rapidly surge output if Iranian flows are disrupted. Additionally, OPEC+ is reportedly weighing a 137,000 barrel-per-day production increase for April to cover potential supply voids.

Domestically, fundamental data was resoundingly bearish. The US Energy Information Administration reported a staggering 16-million-barrel surge in crude stockpiles—crushing the 1.5-million-barrel forecast—driven by falling refinery utilization. However, this massive build had a muted price impact in the highly headline-driven trading environment.

Adding broader macroeconomic headwinds, investors grappled with fresh trade uncertainty as a 10% US global tariff took effect, with the US Trade Representative signaling potential escalations to 15% for select partners.

Written by: Aiman Haikal