Morning Briefing - 10 Nov. 2025
CommoPlast
Morning Briefing
10 November 2025
Brent: $63.63 (+ $0.25)
WTI: $59.75 (+ $0.32)
Naphtha CFR Japan: + $6
Ethylene CFR NEA: Stable
Ethylene CFR SEA: Stable
Propylene FOB Korea: - $20
Propylene CFR China: - $20
*Data represent closing prices of the previous trading day
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Asian Ethylene Market Extends Losses Amid Prolonged Demand Slump
The Asian ethylene market continued its downward trajectory for the seventh consecutive week, according to data from CommoPlast, accumulating losses of more than $100/ton from the cyclical peak recorded in mid-September. The sustained decline was largely driven by sluggish demand across key downstream sectors, including PE, PVC, and styrene monomer (SM).
In a notable market anomaly, spot ethylene prices on a CFR Southeast Asia basis lagged behind those in Northeast Asia, underscoring the widening demand disparity between the two regions. Meanwhile, the naphtha–ethylene spread has narrowed sharply to just $148–158/ton, far below the typical breakeven thresholds of around $250/ton for integrated producers and $300–350/ton for non-integrated producers.
The persistent compression in cracking margins has prompted market participants to question whether the current price downtrend may be approaching its cyclical bottom.
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Chinese PVC Market Remained Bifurcated Amid Demand Weakness
The Chinese PVC market continued to display diverging trends in the week to 7 November 2025, with ethylene-based prices leading the downtrend while carbide-based materials held comparatively steady amid firm upstream costs.
Amid soft fundamentals, Chinese suppliers of ethylene-based PVC have adopted increasingly aggressive pricing strategies in recent weeks to stimulate buying interest, though sentiment remains cautious ahead of India’s imminent implementation of anti-dumping duties (ADD).
In the local market, sentiment was further dampened by weakness on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The most actively traded January 2026 PVC futures contract fell to multi-year lows, eroding confidence among spot players.
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