Morning Briefing - 16 Mar. 2026
CommoPlast
Morning Briefing
16 March 2026
Brent: $103.14 (+ $2.68)
WTI: $98.71 (+ $2.98)
Naphtha CFR Japan: + $83
Ethylene CFR NEA: + $150
Ethylene CFR SEA: + $180
Propylene FOB Korea: + $40
Propylene CFR China: + $40
*Data represent closing prices of the previous trading day
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Brent approaches 2022 levels as markets brace for renewed volatility after US strike on Kharg Island
Global oil markets are bracing for another volatile week after a US strike on Iran’s main export hub at Kharg Island deepened fears of a broader supply shock across the Middle East. Brent futures climbed approximately 0.8% to around $104/barrel in early Asian trading after surging 11% last week. The standoff could choke off a significant portion of global crude flows. Yet the market response remains a mix of alarm and contingency planning.
The International Energy Agency has begun mobilising a record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release; however, supplies for Asia are expected to take weeks to arrive, and the pace of distribution remains unclear. Meanwhile, producers and consuming nations are scrambling for workarounds as storage fills in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia redirects exports through its Red Sea pipeline. Even so, with threats of retaliation against energy infrastructure and no clear pathway to reopening Hormuz, the market’s underlying bias remains upward, leaving crude vulnerable to further spikes if the conflict intensifies.
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SEA markets steady as buyers remain selective amid supply pressures
Southeast Asia’s polyolefin markets are beginning to regain composure after the erratic price swings earlier this month, but the emerging firmness reflects caution rather than conviction. For PP, China-origin cargoes continue to dominate regional supply, with buyers remaining highly selective, favouring small parcels and ready-stock cargoes as logistical risks tied to the Middle East conflict persist.
PE markets appear structurally tighter, though the response from participants remains measured. Force majeure notifications from regional producers have heightened supply concerns as upstream cost pressures begin filtering through to buyers, with some previously agreed LLDPE deals revised higher by $180/ton. The Middle East conflict remains the focus, as some noted that even if tensions ease, supply chains could take months to normalise. While China-origin PE cargoes continue to circulate, these volumes may thin as Chinese plants trim operating rates amid feedstock uncertainty. Sellers are increasingly rationing inventories, yet buying remains selective rather than reactive. Trading momentum is expected to slow further in the coming days as participants in Malaysia and Indonesia step back for the Hari Raya Aidilfitri celebrations.
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