Freightos Baltic: Ocean spot rates fall across major trades as tariffs and oversupply weigh

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Global container freight rates extended their decline last week, with the transpacific and Asia–Europe trades registering sharp corrections amid soft post–Golden Week demand and persistent capacity expansion.

Transpacific spot prices fell steeply, with West Coast rates down 16% to $1,554/FEU and East Coast levels dropping 18% to $3,260/FEU. Prices on the Asia–Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes also weakened, slipping 9% and 6% to $1,925 and $2,217/FEU, respectively. All four lanes now trade more than 60% below year-ago levels, approaching their lowest points since before the Red Sea crisis nearly two years ago.

The downturn coincides with new policy measures in the US. Section 232 tariffs on furniture imports and the US Trade Representative’s port call fees on Chinese carriers both took effect on 14 October. While non-Chinese operators have adjusted vessel rotations to limit exposure, Chinese lines such as COSCO and OOCL have maintained existing schedules and reassured customers that services and surcharges will remain unaffected.

In a reciprocal move, Beijing has amended its maritime laws, enabling authorities to impose retaliatory fees or restrict access to Chinese ports and data systems for vessels from countries deemed discriminatory. The measure heightens geopolitical tension but is unlikely to disrupt trade flows significantly, given the limited share of US-flagged ships operating on the transpacific.

With peak season concluded and cargo volumes softening, the rate slide highlights the growing mismatch between supply and demand. Despite ongoing Red Sea diversions, additional tonnage entering the market continues to outpace cargo growth. The eventual resolution of the Red Sea conflict could release even more capacity, extending the current downtrend.

Carriers are planning mid-October general rate increases on Asia–Europe routes and introducing further blank sailings and service suspensions through year-end in an effort to stabilise pricing. The effectiveness of these measures will depend on the scale and consistency of capacity withdrawals.

Operationally, the US government shutdown and recent typhoon activity in East Asia have had minimal impact on ocean freight. Absent a significant rebound in demand or coordinated capacity cuts, spot rates are expected to remain under pressure through the remainder of October.

Written: Aiman Haikal