Selective transit agreements and persistent maritime seizures leave global crude benchmarks flat

Crude futures concluded Thursday trading functionally flat as algorithmic flows weighed the first signs of selective logistical easing against persistent kinetic disruptions.

The international Brent contract edged up 9 cents (0.09%) to settle at $105.72 a barrel, while US WTI crude rose 15 cents (0.15%) to close at $101.17. The muted settlement reflects a paper market struggling to price a fundamentally fractured maritime corridor where politically negotiated transit deals are clashing with active vessel seizures.

The absolute logistical paralysis is transitioning into a regime of highly selective, politically vetted transit. Iranian authorities confirmed the passage of approximately 30 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, directly facilitated by bilateral agreements covering Iraqi, Pakistani, and Chinese flows. This permitted transit included a stranded Chinese supertanker loaded with Iraqi crude and a Japan-linked Eneos vessel. However, this highly controlled volume remains severely depressed compared to the pre-conflict average of 140 daily crossings, ensuring structural downstream baseloads remain acutely constrained.

Despite the fractional easing for politically cleared vessels, the broader maritime zone remains highly militarised and volatile for unaligned shipping. Kinetic enforcement continued actively, with an Indian cargo vessel sunk off the coast of Oman and unauthorised personnel hijacking a commercial ship near the UAE port of Fujairah to redirect it toward Iranian waters. The compounding economic toll of this structural disruption prompted the International Monetary Fund to officially downgrade global real GDP growth projections to 2.5% for the year, warning that the global economy is decisively entering an adverse macroeconomic scenario.

Written by: Aiman Haikal