Oil settled mixed as 60-day ceasefire framework and sixth consecutive US inventory draw offset brief kinetic flare-up

Oil futures concluded a highly volatile Thursday session mixed as algorithmic flows balanced a potential multi-month ceasefire extension against ongoing localized military actions.

The international Brent contract for July delivery fell 58 cents (0.6%) to settle at $93.71 a barrel, while US WTI crude edged up 22 cents (0.3%) to close at $88.90.

Geopolitical vectors are focusing on a preliminary 60-day ceasefire extension agreement, though the framework lacks final confirmation from Tehran and Washington. This diplomatic development neutralized an early 2% intraday price surge triggered after the IRGC targeted a US air base in retaliation for an earlier strike on Bandar Abbas.

While paper risk premiums fluctuate on shifting headlines, physical Hormuz transit volumes remain capped at a small fraction of pre-war baseloads.

This prolonged maritime paralysis continues to drive structural depletion across the domestic US energy complex. Official data confirmed a 3.3 million-barrel contraction in commercial crude stockpiles—marking the sixth consecutive weekly draw—alongside parallel declines in gasoline and distillate inventories.

The uninterrupted draining of domestic reserves underscores an acutely starved global physical balance, strictly limiting any sustained downward paper corrections.

Written by: Aiman Haikal