Freightos Baltic: Transpacific rates jump 8% as peak season demand outpaces oil market risk

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Transpacific spot rates to both US coasts rose 8% last week, with West Coast prices reaching roughly $6,200/FEU, up 120% since mid-May, and East Coast prices at $8,000/FEU, up 85% over the same span. Asia to Europe rates gained a milder 2-3%, though North Europe at $4,900/FEU and the Mediterranean at $6,500/FEU remain up 70% and 85% respectively since mid-May. East Coast rates now sit $1,000/FEU above last year's frontloading-driven summer peak, West Coast rates have edged past their 2025 high, and Europe and Mediterranean rates are running $1,300/FEU and $3,000/FEU above last year's seasonal peaks.

Port congestion is compounding the rate pressure as volumes strain major hubs across South Asia, the Far East and Europe, producing delays that are effectively removing capacity from the market even as carriers redeploy tonnage from secondary lanes to cover the main east-west trades, a shift that is now lifting secondary-lane rates as well. Carriers are preparing further increases for early July, and how well those hikes stick will offer the clearest signal yet of where this year's peak season stands.

The underlying driver, notably, is demand rather than oil markets. This year's peak season arrived unusually early, pushing rates sharply higher since mid-May on a combination of shippers frontloading ahead of July bunker adjustment factor hikes, manufacturers raising prices, and US importers racing to beat an approaching tariff deadline.

Should that pull-forward prove to be the main force behind the surge, an early peak would logically point to an early unwind, potentially arriving as soon as July. Congestion could complicate that timeline, though, as continued delays at bottlenecked ports may extend elevated volumes and rates longer than shippers are hoping for.

Geopolitical risk continues to simmer in the background. US-Iran talks toward a final peace deal are ongoing, at times under fire, even as Iran pushes to assert sole control over Strait of Hormuz transit. Gulf oil volumes are recovering after marine traffic was halted over the weekend following Iranian strikes on transiting vessels and on sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, with Tehran now directing all vessels to route exclusively through the northern strait along the Iranian coast under Iranian coordination.

The IMO's evacuation effort via the southern, Omani-side passage has been suspended after Iran struck a container vessel that was not using the Iranian lane, underscoring how quickly the security picture could still spill over into broader shipping markets.

Written by: Farid Muzaffar