Oil jumped 4% on US military escalation in Middle East and China fuel export halt

Global crude oil futures surged over 4% on Thursday, lifted by an escalation in US military deployments to the Middle East and China’s unexpected suspension of refined fuel exports, stoking fears of acute global product shortages.

Bullish momentum surged after reports confirmed Washington is deploying a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 troops to the Middle East, backed by President Donald Trump’s warnings of renewed strikes on Iran. Heightened risk premiums were compounded by projectile strikes on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, overshadowing data showing Persian Gulf crude exports had rebounded to 23.3 million barrels per day.

Gains broadened as China halted refined product exports, exacerbating global distillate deficits already squeezed by Russia’s ongoing export ban. WTI lagged Brent, pushing the transatlantic spread beyond $9 a barrel as the White House urged European allies to tap emergency reserves while maintaining threats of domestic fuel export curbs.

Despite recovering crude availability, acute middle-distillate shortages continue to distort refinery yields. Elevated product cracks sustain a rigid feedstock cost-push floor across regional steam cracking units, reinforcing margin compression for petrochemical producers ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting.