Oil crashed over 8% to two-month lows as Democratic midterm sweep spurs Iran war exit bets

Global crude oil futures plummeted more than 8% on Wednesday to their lowest settlements since late August after Democrats captured both chambers of the US Congress, sparking aggressive bets on a negotiated end to the Iran war.

Crude benchmarks suffered an aggressive liquidation on Wednesday as election results dismantled war-risk premia across the energy complex. January Brent collapsed $8.98, or 8.67%, to settle at $94.62 a barrel, while WTI plunged $7.97, or 8.29%, to finish at $88.12—marking the weakest closes for both contracts since 31 August and narrowing the transatlantic spread to $6.50.

A dramatic political realignment in Washington accelerated the rout. Democrats swept control of the House of Representatives and Senate, raising expectations that Congress will restrict Middle East military funding and push for a diplomatic settlement. Selling intensified after US President Donald Trump stated Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran and acknowledged the war drove his party's defeat.

Physical inventory support was entirely sidelined by macro liquidation. The Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected 865,000-barrel decline in US commercial crude stockpiles alongside fuel draws for the week ended 30 October. However, steady October Gulf crude exports averaging 17.1 million bpd and UAE plans for a third Hormuz-bypass pipeline reinforced expectations of resilient long-term supply.